2025 sees two fascinating off-year gubernatorial elections: Virginia and New Jersey. Virginia’s Constitution prohibits incumbent governors from running for reelection for consecutive terms, meaning incumbent Glenn Youngkin is ineligible to run this cycle. The Democratic contender is Abigail Spanberger, a former CIA and House of Representatives member, while the Republican contender is Winsome Earle-Sears, the current Lieutenant Governor of Virginia; both sides’ primaries were essentially uncontested. 

This is not an election year in the United States; there are no presidential elections or mid-term elections this year. Still, there are a handful of non-national elections going on, from the very high profile New York mayoral election to various local elections across the country. Chief among them, however, is the Virginia gubernatorial election taking place this November. Off-year gubernatorial elections can be quite interesting, since they’re often a referendum on constituents’ satisfaction with the national administration, frequently leading to interesting upsets. For instance, Democrat Andy Beshear won the Kentucky gubernatorial race in 2019, despite Kentucky being a solid red state. Similarly, Republican Glenn Youngkin won the 2021 gubernatorial race for Virginia, a moderately solid blue state. Intuitively, 2025’s race between Winsome Earle-Sears (Republican) and Abigail Spanberger (Democrat) is most likely going to be a reflection on how Virginians feel about the recently elected Trump administration.

According to a poll conducted by VCU July of this year, the most important issue for Virginians entering this race was the cost of living, with 29% of Virginians saying it was the most important voter issue, followed by immigration (14%) and reproductive rights (14%); this aligns with the central policy focus of both campaigns. Earle-Sears has emphasized her support for lower taxes, reduced government spending, and stricter immigration enforcement, aligning herself closely with Governor Youngkin’s policies. Spanberger, by contrast, has released her “Affordable Virginia Plan,” which focuses on preventing price gouging for prescription drug and healthcare costs, expanding affordable housing programs, and lowering utility bills through energy efficiency and renewable generation investments. She also has demonstrated her support for protecting abortion rights and opposing restrictions like the 15-week abortion ban which is supported by Earle-Sears.

Most polls currently have Spanberger ahead of Earle-Sears by about 6 to 7 percent, leading many national Republicans to rightfully be concerned about the race. Additionally, there is an upcoming debate between the two candidates on Thursday, October 9, at the L. Douglas Wilder Performing Arts Center on the campus of Norfolk State University. Recently, both candidates have been dodging debates, with Spanberger declining a CNN debate when Earle-Sears accepted and Earle Sears declining a Virginia State University debate that Spanberger accepted. This October 9 debate offers a substantive opportunity for voters to see both candidates pressed on the issues most important to Virginians. Whether Virginians choose to elect Spanberger or Earle-Sears, this election is likely to have reverberating consequences for politics beyond our state borders.

Information retrieved from Politico, CNN, AXIOS Richmond, and Newsweek.